Supply Required by 2040 to Maintain Levels of Provision for ‘Other’ Working Age Client Groups (2023-2040)

Absolute Change

Percentage Change

Table

Order wdt_ID wdt_created_by wdt_created_at wdt_last_edited_by wdt_last_edited_at Region 2023 Supply (Units) 2025 Supply Units 2030 Supply Units 2035 Supply Units 2040 Supply (Units) Change (2023-2040) Percentage Change (2023-2040)
3 3 Editors 19.02.25 04:36 PM Editors 17.06.25 01:00 PM Wales 2,000 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,000 0 0
4 4 Editors 19.02.25 04:36 PM Editors 17.06.25 01:01 PM Great Britain 42,700 43,100 44,300 44,600 44,000 1,300 3
1 5 Editors 09.06.25 11:40 AM Editors 17.06.25 12:58 PM England 37,700 38,100 39,200 39,600 39,100 1,400 4
2 6 Editors 09.06.25 11:42 AM Editors 17.06.25 12:59 PM Scotland 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 2,900 -100 -4

Scotland percentage change is –3.3 % → rounds to –3 % NOT -4%

Commentary

Based on the data provided, this document presents projections for supported housing supply across Great Britain from 2023 to 2040, specifically focusing on “other” working age client groups (i.e. working age adults with other primary needs).

Key Findings

Overall Growth but Modest Scale

Great Britain is projected to see a net increase of 1,300 supported housing units by 2040, representing approximately 3% growth from the 2023 baseline of 42,700 units. This suggests relatively stable provision levels rather than significant expansion.

Regional Disparities

England dominates the sector, accounting for 88% of current supply (37,700 units) and capturing virtually all projected growth (1,400 additional units by 2040). In contrast, Scotland shows a slight decline of 100 units, while Wales remains essentially flat with no net change over the 17-year period.

Growth Pattern

The trajectory shows steady but decelerating growth through 2035, followed by a slight pullback by 2040. Supply peaks around 2035 at 44,300 units before dropping to 44,000 units, suggesting potential policy shifts or funding constraints in the latter half of the projection period.

Implications for Stakeholders

For housing providers and commissioners, these projections indicate a relatively stable market with limited expansion opportunities outside England. The modest growth rates may not keep pace with demographic changes or increasing need among working-age populations requiring support.

The regional concentration in England raises questions about equity of provision across the UK, particularly given Scotland’s projected decline. This could signal either successful move-on from supported housing or concerning reduction in available support for vulnerable working-age adults.

The data suggests that maintaining current provision levels will require sustained effort rather than natural growth, particularly given the slight downturn projected for 2040.

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